| Table 12(Handbook of International Economic Statistics 1997-CIA) World
Crude Oil Prices |
| |
1973 |
1975 |
1980 |
1990 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
| OPEC official average sales pricea |
| US $ per barrel |
3.39b |
11.02 |
30.87 |
21.76 |
18.33 |
16.08 |
15.44 |
16.84 |
19.83 |
| 1996 US $ per barrelc |
10.51 |
28.65 |
56.07 |
25.50 |
20.11 |
17.19 |
16.15 |
17.17 |
19.83 |
| World average price |
| US $ per barrel |
NA |
NA |
NA |
22.12 |
18.24 |
16.13 |
15.27 |
16.62 |
19.75 |
| 1996 US $ per barrelc |
NA |
NA |
NA |
25.92 |
20.01 |
17.25 |
15.97 |
16.94 |
19.75 |
a F.o.b. prices set by the OPEC governments for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume of production.
b Posted prices.
c Nominal price deflated by the US GDP price deflator.
Note by Robinson Rojas: Cyclical changes from 1972 to July 1998
$ per barrel 1998 prices
-Source: British Petroleum as quoted in
The Economist, August 15th, 1998
Figures in parenthesis: rounded price per barrel
--------------------------
1.- UP 1972( 7) 1973(10) 1974(34)
2.- DOWN 1974(34) 1975(32) 1976(33) 1977(33) 1978(32)
3.- UP 1978(32) 1979(67) 1980(72)
4.- DOWN 1980(72) 1981(61) 1982(54) 1983(46) 1984(43) 1985(42) 1986(20)
5.- UP 1986(20) 1987(26) 1988(20) 1989(23) 1990(30)
6.- DOWN 1990(30) 1991(23) 1992(22) 1993(18) 1994(17)
7.- UP 1994(17) 1995(18) 1996(21)
8.- DOWN 1996(21) 1997(20) 1998(12)*1999(10)(March)**
---------------------------
* forecast based on prices up to July 1998
** actual price
________________________________________________________________________
Diverging prices for commodities and manufactured goods in the
international market during the process of globalization:
UNIT VALUE INDEX
of manufactures Petroleum Agriculture Metals and Fertilizers
exported by Minerals
France, Germany,
Japan, United Kingdom,
and United States
1965 100 100 100 100 100
1970 114 83 107 111 77
1975 205 767 190 143 405
1980 327 2683 329 257 331
1985 314 1983 238 189 228
1990 455 1667 238 270 256
1996 518 1483 298 241 308
Source: "Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries. 1997",
A World Bank Book, 1997
--------------------------------
ANALYSIS:
From: GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES,World
Bank, World Bank, 1996
Commodity prices and manufactured goods prices. Index
G-5 unit value index of manufactures*
1965 100
1970 114
1975 205
1980 327
1985 314
1990 455
1994 486
Commodity price indexes
Metals Cash
and Crops Food Oil
Minerals
1965 100 100 100 100
1970 105 97 113 100
1975 166 155 194 850
1980 283 300 326 2,400
1985 210 198 255 2,100
1990 244 227 213 1,667
1994 207 250 270 1,167
Commodity price indexes as % of G-5 manufactured goods index
Metals Cash
and Crops Food Oil
Minerals
1965 100 100 100 100
1970 92 85 99 88
1975 81 76 95 415
1980 87 92 100 734
1985 67 63 81 669
1990 54 50 47 366
1994 43 51 56 240
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CENTRAL TENDENCY FOR VARIATIONS- 29 YEARS
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
G-5 METALS CASH FOOD OIL
MANUFACTURES AND CROPS
MINERALS
------------------------------------------------------------------
1965-1994 5.6 2.5 3.2 3.5 8.8
------------------------------------------------------------------
1965-1980 8.2 7.2 7.6 8.2 23.6
------------------------------------------------------------------
1980-1994 2.9 -2.2 -1.3 -1.3 -5.0
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
* United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom
________________________________________________________________________
The Economist Index for industrial commodities price: 1840-1999
From Financial Times, 23 March, 1999, "OPEC determined to reach the
oil price "comfort zone"
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